The SWAP-RTS model is the product of 30 years of continuous developments in agronomic, hydrologic, and economic modeling. The following improvements in theory, analysis, and calibration make SWAP-RTS a major improvement over the previous SWAP 6.1 model.
California agriculture and water data can be inconsistent. For example, data records can be mislabeled or incorrect in one region and completely missing in another. ERA Economics' team of experts has leveraged their domain knowledge in agriculture, hydrology, and economics to identify the subtle discrepancies in open and proprietary datasets, and has cleaned data records on a field-by-field basis to create an accurate and informative picture of California agriculture. The SWAP-RTS data platform includes farm financial information, field-level production, CALSIM II and C2VSIM model output, and other data sources.
The dairy sector is the largest legal agricultural production sector in California, and is closely linked with the substantial quantities of land and water used for fodder production, namely silage and alfalfa. SWAP-RTS includes a regional dairy production calibrated on data for milk and silage production, alfalfa, and concentrate prices. This means that the value of these crops in dairy production is correctly included in the SWAP-RTS model for the first time, offering clients critical insights on the linkages between land and water use, as well as regional employment and production, in the dairy sector.
Many resource values are incompletely or inaccurately priced. For example, recent market sales demonstrate that the economic value of irrigation water is reflected in the value of crops produced, not irrigation district charges. A key strength of SWAP-RTS is using recent advances in economic theory and calibration methods to estimate the values for water, land, or environmental constraints. As a result, clients are better informed about the true costs of limited resources or costly regulations.
Most economic models require a tradeoff in calibration. Models can either reliably reproduce current economic conditions or accurately predict responses to changing conditions, which means that end-users often rely on a tradeoff between accuracy in real-world conditions or reasonable grower behavior. SWAP-RTS uses recent theoretical developments to achieve both criteria simultaneously, such that our insights are grounded in empirical data and realistic simulations.
SWAP-RTS is calibrated using decreasing returns to scale (RTS) production functions. This flexible specification allows the model to incorporate information—or directly link to—biophysical models of hydrology, crop production, and general resource productivity. This means that farmer decisions within the model are limited by resource constraints and regulations, which come with significant costs and risks. Our clients have deeper insights into the costs and risks associated with water, climate, nitrate use, and other regulations.
ERA Economics offers discounted model access to collaborators and non-profits. Please contact us for more details.
California agriculture and water data can be inconsistent. ERA Economics' team of experts has leveraged their domain knowledge in agriculture, hydrology, and economics to identify the subtle discrepancies in open and proprietary datasets, and has cleaned data records on a county-by-county basis to create an accurate and informative picture of California agriculture.
The dairy sector is the largest legal agricultural production sector in California, and is closely linked with the substantial quantities of land and water used for fodder production. SWAP-RTS tracks daily production for the first time, offering clients critical insights on the linkages between land and water use, as well as regional employment and production
Many resource values are incompletely or inaccurately priced. A key strength of SWAP-RTS is using recent advances in economic theory and calibration methods to estimate the values for water, land, or environmental constraints.
Many economic models are calibrated in a way that either reliably reproduces current economic conditions or accurately predicts responses to changing conditions, but not both. SWAP-RTS uses recent theoretical developments to achieve both conditions simultaneously and produce more realistic results.
SWAP-RTS is calibrated using decreasing returns to scale (RTS) production functions. This means that resource constraints affect economic outcomes in a more realistic manner, especially in cases where variation in water, climate, and nitrate use have significant effects on production and economic behaviors.
ERA Economics offers discounted model access to collaborators and non-profits. Please contact us for more details.